UK Health Security Agency

Senior Infectious Disease Modeller

The closing date is 08 June 2025

Job summary

The postholder will be the lead modeller in the Immunisation and Vaccine-Preventable Diseases Division (IVPD) for respiratory virus diseases. This is a permanent post. This is a key post contributing to UKHSA's capacity and capability in transmission-dynamic modelling and health economic evaluations to further understanding and inform decision-making. As well as requiring specific technical expertise, this post requires broad scientific knowledge and involves substantial interdisciplinary working (e.g. with medical, clinical, and scientific staff) within UKHSA and in other organisations, nationally and internationally. The postholder's work will directly inform deliberations by the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) and UK policy.

The work done by the postholder will help shape future policy making and scientific advances in this field. Hence it carries considerable potential for original scientific work and requires a high degree of personal motivation.

Main duties of the job

The post holder will work closely with colleagues in other parts of UKHSA, including Commercial, Vaccine, Countermeasures Delivery (CVCD) and the Statistics, Modelling and Economic Division (SMED), as well as Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) analysts and DHSC immunisation policy teams. The IVPD division's academic collaborations include Imperial College, University of Oxford and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), including through the recently renewed Health Protection Research Units (HPRUs) for Respiratory Infections at Imperial and Immunisation (LSHTM). Health Protection Research Units (HPRUs) are collaboration between UKHSA and UK universities, funded by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) through the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR).

You will line manage one post initially, a mathematical modeller / statistical epidemiologist, and be managed by a consultant epidemiologist.

About us

We pride ourselves as being an employer of choice, where Everyone Matters promoting equality of opportunity to actively encourage applications from everyone, including groups currently underrepresented in our workforce.

UKHSA ethos is to be an inclusive organisation for all our staff and stakeholders. To create, nurture and sustain an inclusive culture, where differences drive innovative solutions to meet the needs of our workforce and wider communities. We do this through celebrating and protecting differences by removing barriers and promoting equity and equality of opportunity for all.

Please visit our careers site for more information https://gov.uk/ukhsa/careers

Details

Date posted

22 May 2025

Pay scheme

Other

Salary

£58,589 to £68,344 a year per annum, pro rata

Contract

Permanent

Working pattern

Full-time, Part-time, Job share, Flexible working

Reference number

919-LT-303427-EXT

Job locations

Scientific Campus

Colindale

NW9 5EQ


Job description

Job responsibilities

Current work areas will include:

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccination programme modelling, including population dynamics as vaccines for older infants and toddlers are developed, working with the Respiratory Infections HPRU and other organisations. Adult risk group RSV cost-effectiveness may be a further area of work in a lead or supporting role.

Influenza. Current activities include analysis of the impact of the seasonal flu vaccination programmes on hospitalisations and mortality, including identifying where additional data collection could reduce model uncertainty, and comparative cost-effectiveness of different vaccines including novel technologies. You may also contribute to influenza pandemic preparedness and countermeasures modelling. There may be opportunities to support analysis of geo-temporal patterns of influenza disease and their relationship with vaccine uptake. Collaborative work on forecasting seasonal influenza impact using population serosurveillance, strain diversity data and healthcare surveillance data is also within scope.

Human metapneumovirus vaccines are in development (many as dual vaccines with RSV) and this is expected to be a developing area of work in collaboration with academic partners to support programme decision making.

Detailed job description and main responsibilities

  • To lead development of infectious disease transmission-dynamic models and integrated cost-effectiveness analysis, primarily related to viral respiratory infections and the role of vaccination in their control.
  • To identify knowledge gaps, prioritise them, and address the most important through novel analysis and helping design empirical studies where appropriate.
  • To synthesise evidence from surveillance and other data sources to understand the natural history and epidemiology of infection, and the effectiveness of control measures, using relevant software.
  • To design and build new models or adapt and extend existing models as appropriate.
  • To parameterise models by analysis of appropriate data and literature review.
  • To develop and implement protocols/quality assurance plans for the development and analysis of data and models.
  • To work and communicate effectively within a multidisciplinary team to coordinate research.
  • To manage own programme of work and to use considerable initiative and independence.
  • To work with colleagues in UKHSAs Immunisation and Vaccine Preventable Diseases Division, Statistics, Modelling and Economic Division; Immunisation Division; and with JCVI, DHSC, and other organisations as appropriate.
  • To liaise and collaborate with public health and academic colleagues in the UK and internationally.
  • To participate in teaching and training at UKHSA and elsewhere, including informal training of colleagues and participation in formal teaching (including preparation of teaching materials).
  • To give presentations at national and international meetings, as appropriate.
  • To write papers for high-quality peer-reviewed scientific journals

Essential role criteria:

  • An undergraduate or master's degree in a quantitative discipline (e.g. mathematics, physics, biology or economics)
  • PhD in infectious disease dynamics or in a comparable specialism with post-doctoral infectious disease dynamics experience relevant to the role
  • Strong skills in scientific programme in R or in a directly transferrable language e.g. MATLAB, C++
  • Experience of parallelization e.g. HPC/GPU
  • Experience in successfully modelling respiratory infections, with an internationally recognised track record of research
  • Ability to pay attention to detail and devise ways of checking own work carefully (including debugging code), and strong skills in developing robust workflows, including version control and reproducible research.
  • Ability to apply health economic approaches to provide insight into complex health problems.
  • Demonstrated excellent written and verbal communication skills, with the proven ability to:(i) communicate complex ideas, methods, and results clearly and succinctly to a wide range of audiences;(ii) publish scientific papers in high-quality peer-reviewed journals;(iii) give presentations at international meetings (conferences and invited presentations);
  • Experience of working with a wide range of data, such as healthcare data, serology and pathogen genomics.
  • Ability to work both with considerable initiative and independence, and as a team member (in a multidisciplinary team), including initiating, planning and executing own work programme and coordinating with collaborators.
  • Ability to liaise effectively with a wide range of health professionals, demonstrating strong interpersonal and leadership skills when working with team members and working collaboratively across disciplines and levels of seniority.
  • Ability to identify, formulate and solve problems, make judgments based on analysis and interpretation of complex data or situations, and assess and devise appropriate responses.
  • Organisation, planning and time-management skills and ability to develop long-term plans, taking into account uncertainties.

Desirable role criteria:

  • Knowledge and experience of cost-utility/cost-effectiveness analysis in the field of infectious diseases and vaccination.
  • Experience of developing packages in R or comparable languages/environments
  • Demonstrable track record in writing successful funding applications

Selection Process Details:

This vacancy will be assessed using a competency-based framework which will assess your qualifications, knowledge and experience and/or skills and abilities outlined in the essential criteria.

Stage 1: Application & Sift

Competency-based

You will be required to complete an application form. You will be assessed on the listed 13 essential criteria, and this will be in the form of a:

  • Application form (Employer/ Activity history section on the application)
  • 1250 word Statement of Suitability.

This should outline how your skills, experience, and knowledge, provide evidence of your suitability for the role, with reference to the essential criteria.

The Application form and Statement of Suitability will be marked together.

Longlisting: In the event of a large number of applications we will longlist into 3 piles of:

  • Meets all essential criteria
  • Meets some essential criteria
  • Meets no essential criteria

Piles 'meets all essential criteria' and 'meets some essential criteria' will proceed to shortlisting.

Shortlisting: In the event of a large number of applications we will shortlist on the lead criteria of:

  • PhD in infectious disease dynamics or in a comparable specialism with post-doctoral infectious disease dynamics experience relevant to the role

Desirable criteria may be used in the event of a large number of applications/large amount of successful candidates.

If you are successful at this stage, you will progress to interview & assessment.Please do not exceed 1250 words. We will not consider any words over and above this number.

Feedback will not be provided at this stage.

Stage 2: Interview

Competency based

You will be invited to a single remote interview.

Knowledge, experience, skills & abilities will be tested at interview.

You will be asked to prepare and present a 5 minute presentation at the start of your interview. The subject of this will be sent to you prior to interview.

Interviews planned for Monday 23rd June, potential alternative date of Thursday 26th June. These dates may be subject to change.

Once this job has closed, the job advert will no longer be available. You may want to save a copy for your records.

Selection Process

Please note you will not be able to upload your CV. You must complete the application form in as much detail as possible. Please do not email us your CV.

Eligibility Criteria

External: open to all external applicants (anyone) from outside the Civil Service (including by definition internal applicants).

Location

This role is being offered as hybrid working based at our Scientific Campus in Colindale. We offer great flexible working opportunities at UKHSA and operate using a hybrid working model where business needs allow. This provides us with greater flexibility about how and where we work, to get the best from our workforce. As a hybrid worker, you will be expected to spend a minimum of 60% of your contractual working hours (approximately 3 days a week pro rata, averaged over a month) working on site at Colindale.

Security Clearance Level Requirement

Successful candidates must pass a disclosure and barring security check.

If based at one of our scientific campuses, you will be required to have a minimum of a Counter Terrorism Check security vetting check as a minimum. For meaningful National Security Vetting checks to be carried out individuals need to have lived in the UK for a sufficient period of time. You should normally have been resident in the United Kingdom for the last 3 years as the role requires Counter Terrorism Check (CTC) clearance. In exceptional circumstances UK residency less than the outlined periods may not necessarily bar you from gaining national security vetting and applicants should contact the Vacancy Holder/Recruiting Manager listed in the advert for further advice.

Job description

Job responsibilities

Current work areas will include:

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccination programme modelling, including population dynamics as vaccines for older infants and toddlers are developed, working with the Respiratory Infections HPRU and other organisations. Adult risk group RSV cost-effectiveness may be a further area of work in a lead or supporting role.

Influenza. Current activities include analysis of the impact of the seasonal flu vaccination programmes on hospitalisations and mortality, including identifying where additional data collection could reduce model uncertainty, and comparative cost-effectiveness of different vaccines including novel technologies. You may also contribute to influenza pandemic preparedness and countermeasures modelling. There may be opportunities to support analysis of geo-temporal patterns of influenza disease and their relationship with vaccine uptake. Collaborative work on forecasting seasonal influenza impact using population serosurveillance, strain diversity data and healthcare surveillance data is also within scope.

Human metapneumovirus vaccines are in development (many as dual vaccines with RSV) and this is expected to be a developing area of work in collaboration with academic partners to support programme decision making.

Detailed job description and main responsibilities

  • To lead development of infectious disease transmission-dynamic models and integrated cost-effectiveness analysis, primarily related to viral respiratory infections and the role of vaccination in their control.
  • To identify knowledge gaps, prioritise them, and address the most important through novel analysis and helping design empirical studies where appropriate.
  • To synthesise evidence from surveillance and other data sources to understand the natural history and epidemiology of infection, and the effectiveness of control measures, using relevant software.
  • To design and build new models or adapt and extend existing models as appropriate.
  • To parameterise models by analysis of appropriate data and literature review.
  • To develop and implement protocols/quality assurance plans for the development and analysis of data and models.
  • To work and communicate effectively within a multidisciplinary team to coordinate research.
  • To manage own programme of work and to use considerable initiative and independence.
  • To work with colleagues in UKHSAs Immunisation and Vaccine Preventable Diseases Division, Statistics, Modelling and Economic Division; Immunisation Division; and with JCVI, DHSC, and other organisations as appropriate.
  • To liaise and collaborate with public health and academic colleagues in the UK and internationally.
  • To participate in teaching and training at UKHSA and elsewhere, including informal training of colleagues and participation in formal teaching (including preparation of teaching materials).
  • To give presentations at national and international meetings, as appropriate.
  • To write papers for high-quality peer-reviewed scientific journals

Essential role criteria:

  • An undergraduate or master's degree in a quantitative discipline (e.g. mathematics, physics, biology or economics)
  • PhD in infectious disease dynamics or in a comparable specialism with post-doctoral infectious disease dynamics experience relevant to the role
  • Strong skills in scientific programme in R or in a directly transferrable language e.g. MATLAB, C++
  • Experience of parallelization e.g. HPC/GPU
  • Experience in successfully modelling respiratory infections, with an internationally recognised track record of research
  • Ability to pay attention to detail and devise ways of checking own work carefully (including debugging code), and strong skills in developing robust workflows, including version control and reproducible research.
  • Ability to apply health economic approaches to provide insight into complex health problems.
  • Demonstrated excellent written and verbal communication skills, with the proven ability to:(i) communicate complex ideas, methods, and results clearly and succinctly to a wide range of audiences;(ii) publish scientific papers in high-quality peer-reviewed journals;(iii) give presentations at international meetings (conferences and invited presentations);
  • Experience of working with a wide range of data, such as healthcare data, serology and pathogen genomics.
  • Ability to work both with considerable initiative and independence, and as a team member (in a multidisciplinary team), including initiating, planning and executing own work programme and coordinating with collaborators.
  • Ability to liaise effectively with a wide range of health professionals, demonstrating strong interpersonal and leadership skills when working with team members and working collaboratively across disciplines and levels of seniority.
  • Ability to identify, formulate and solve problems, make judgments based on analysis and interpretation of complex data or situations, and assess and devise appropriate responses.
  • Organisation, planning and time-management skills and ability to develop long-term plans, taking into account uncertainties.

Desirable role criteria:

  • Knowledge and experience of cost-utility/cost-effectiveness analysis in the field of infectious diseases and vaccination.
  • Experience of developing packages in R or comparable languages/environments
  • Demonstrable track record in writing successful funding applications

Selection Process Details:

This vacancy will be assessed using a competency-based framework which will assess your qualifications, knowledge and experience and/or skills and abilities outlined in the essential criteria.

Stage 1: Application & Sift

Competency-based

You will be required to complete an application form. You will be assessed on the listed 13 essential criteria, and this will be in the form of a:

  • Application form (Employer/ Activity history section on the application)
  • 1250 word Statement of Suitability.

This should outline how your skills, experience, and knowledge, provide evidence of your suitability for the role, with reference to the essential criteria.

The Application form and Statement of Suitability will be marked together.

Longlisting: In the event of a large number of applications we will longlist into 3 piles of:

  • Meets all essential criteria
  • Meets some essential criteria
  • Meets no essential criteria

Piles 'meets all essential criteria' and 'meets some essential criteria' will proceed to shortlisting.

Shortlisting: In the event of a large number of applications we will shortlist on the lead criteria of:

  • PhD in infectious disease dynamics or in a comparable specialism with post-doctoral infectious disease dynamics experience relevant to the role

Desirable criteria may be used in the event of a large number of applications/large amount of successful candidates.

If you are successful at this stage, you will progress to interview & assessment.Please do not exceed 1250 words. We will not consider any words over and above this number.

Feedback will not be provided at this stage.

Stage 2: Interview

Competency based

You will be invited to a single remote interview.

Knowledge, experience, skills & abilities will be tested at interview.

You will be asked to prepare and present a 5 minute presentation at the start of your interview. The subject of this will be sent to you prior to interview.

Interviews planned for Monday 23rd June, potential alternative date of Thursday 26th June. These dates may be subject to change.

Once this job has closed, the job advert will no longer be available. You may want to save a copy for your records.

Selection Process

Please note you will not be able to upload your CV. You must complete the application form in as much detail as possible. Please do not email us your CV.

Eligibility Criteria

External: open to all external applicants (anyone) from outside the Civil Service (including by definition internal applicants).

Location

This role is being offered as hybrid working based at our Scientific Campus in Colindale. We offer great flexible working opportunities at UKHSA and operate using a hybrid working model where business needs allow. This provides us with greater flexibility about how and where we work, to get the best from our workforce. As a hybrid worker, you will be expected to spend a minimum of 60% of your contractual working hours (approximately 3 days a week pro rata, averaged over a month) working on site at Colindale.

Security Clearance Level Requirement

Successful candidates must pass a disclosure and barring security check.

If based at one of our scientific campuses, you will be required to have a minimum of a Counter Terrorism Check security vetting check as a minimum. For meaningful National Security Vetting checks to be carried out individuals need to have lived in the UK for a sufficient period of time. You should normally have been resident in the United Kingdom for the last 3 years as the role requires Counter Terrorism Check (CTC) clearance. In exceptional circumstances UK residency less than the outlined periods may not necessarily bar you from gaining national security vetting and applicants should contact the Vacancy Holder/Recruiting Manager listed in the advert for further advice.

Person Specification

Essential Criteria

Essential

  • Application and statement of suitability

Essential Criteria

Essential

  • Questions on experience, knowledge, skills and abilities
Person Specification

Essential Criteria

Essential

  • Application and statement of suitability

Essential Criteria

Essential

  • Questions on experience, knowledge, skills and abilities

Disclosure and Barring Service Check

This post is subject to the Rehabilitation of Offenders Act (Exceptions Order) 1975 and as such it will be necessary for a submission for Disclosure to be made to the Disclosure and Barring Service (formerly known as CRB) to check for any previous criminal convictions.

Certificate of Sponsorship

Applications from job seekers who require current Skilled worker sponsorship to work in the UK are welcome and will be considered alongside all other applications. For further information visit the UK Visas and Immigration website (Opens in a new tab).

From 6 April 2017, skilled worker applicants, applying for entry clearance into the UK, have had to present a criminal record certificate from each country they have resided continuously or cumulatively for 12 months or more in the past 10 years. Adult dependants (over 18 years old) are also subject to this requirement. Guidance can be found here Criminal records checks for overseas applicants (Opens in a new tab).

Additional information

Disclosure and Barring Service Check

This post is subject to the Rehabilitation of Offenders Act (Exceptions Order) 1975 and as such it will be necessary for a submission for Disclosure to be made to the Disclosure and Barring Service (formerly known as CRB) to check for any previous criminal convictions.

Certificate of Sponsorship

Applications from job seekers who require current Skilled worker sponsorship to work in the UK are welcome and will be considered alongside all other applications. For further information visit the UK Visas and Immigration website (Opens in a new tab).

From 6 April 2017, skilled worker applicants, applying for entry clearance into the UK, have had to present a criminal record certificate from each country they have resided continuously or cumulatively for 12 months or more in the past 10 years. Adult dependants (over 18 years old) are also subject to this requirement. Guidance can be found here Criminal records checks for overseas applicants (Opens in a new tab).

Employer details

Employer name

UK Health Security Agency

Address

Scientific Campus

Colindale

NW9 5EQ


Employer's website

https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/uk-health-security-agency (Opens in a new tab)

Employer details

Employer name

UK Health Security Agency

Address

Scientific Campus

Colindale

NW9 5EQ


Employer's website

https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/uk-health-security-agency (Opens in a new tab)

Employer contact details

For questions about the job, contact:

Resourcing Support Officer

Lisa Tweedie

Lisa.Tweedie@ukhsa.gov.uk

Details

Date posted

22 May 2025

Pay scheme

Other

Salary

£58,589 to £68,344 a year per annum, pro rata

Contract

Permanent

Working pattern

Full-time, Part-time, Job share, Flexible working

Reference number

919-LT-303427-EXT

Job locations

Scientific Campus

Colindale

NW9 5EQ


Supporting documents

Privacy notice

UK Health Security Agency's privacy notice (opens in a new tab)